Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, October 18th

Thursday’s bond market has opened up slightly with stocks down again and no big surprises in today’s economic data. The major stock indexes are showing fairly heavy losses again, pushing the Dow lower by 127 points and the Nasdaq down 60 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (3.20%), but weakness in bonds late yesterday will prevent an improvement in today’s mortgage rates. As the bond market soured yesterday afternoon, many lenders revised rates higher intraday. Therefore, how much of an increase you will see this morning depends on their move yesterday afternoon. Today’s rates should be higher than Wednesday’s morning pricing by a little more than .125 of a discount point.

2/32


Bonds


30 yr - 3.20%

127


Dow


25,579

60


NASDAQ


7,582

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Neutral


Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

Yesterday’s release of the FOMC minutes didn’t reveal many surprises. This was expected because the last meeting was followed by updated economic projections and a press conference with Chairman Powell. One note worth mentioning is that its contents indicate a fourth rate hike this year, expected at December’s meeting, is all but guaranteed. The vote to raise rates the quarter point at that meeting was unanimous. The rest of the minutes were uneventful for the most part.

Low


Negative


Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Last week’s unemployment figures were posted at 8:30 AM ET today, revealing 210,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous week’s revised 215,000 initial filings and weaker than the 212,000 that was expected. However, this is a very small variance in a weekly report, so it has had no impact on today’s mortgage rates.

Low


Neutral


Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

September's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was the second report of the day. The Conference Board announced an increase of 0.5%, matching expectations. This index attempts to predict economic growth over the next several months. Therefore, weaker readings are considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates. But since it pegged forecasts, we have no seen much of a reaction to the news.

Medium


Unknown


Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Tomorrow brings us one economic release worth watching. That would be September's Existing Home Sales data at 10:00 AM ET. This report will give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales. It is expected to show a small decline in sales from August to September, meaning the housing sector was flat. That would be relatively good news for the bond market since a strengthening housing sector makes broader economic growth more likely and bonds less appealing to investors. Ideally, it would show a sizable decline in sales that points toward a weakening housing sector.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.